{"id":1783,"date":"2022-02-02T12:05:19","date_gmt":"2022-02-02T04:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/\/?p=1783"},"modified":"2022-03-01T14:37:39","modified_gmt":"2022-03-01T06:37:39","slug":"21%e9%bb%9e%e7%ae%97%e7%89%8c%e5%ae%a2%e8%a9%b2%e7%9f%a5%e9%81%93%e7%9a%84%e8%b3%ad%e5%a0%b4%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/21%e9%bb%9e%e7%ae%97%e7%89%8c%e5%ae%a2%e8%a9%b2%e7%9f%a5%e9%81%93%e7%9a%84%e8%b3%ad%e5%a0%b4%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u8a72\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u8ced\u5834\u7b56\u7565"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_60 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-light-blue ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">\u5167\u5bb9\u76ee\u9304<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-660659c10a7d2\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span 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title=\"21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u9577\u8ced\u5fc5\u8f38\">21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u9577\u8ced\u5fc5\u8f38<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\r\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4918 size-full\" src=/index.html"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u6cd5\u5177\u9ad4\u61c9\u7528.jpg\" alt=\"21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u6cd5\u5177\u9ad4\u61c9\u7528\" width=\"1089\" height=\"879\" srcset=\"https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u6cd5\u5177\u9ad4\u61c9\u7528.jpg 1089w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u6cd5\u5177\u9ad4\u61c9\u7528-300x242.jpg 300w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u6cd5\u5177\u9ad4\u61c9\u7528-1024x827.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u6cd5\u5177\u9ad4\u61c9\u7528-768x620.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1089px) 100vw, 1089px\" \/>\r\n<figcaption>\u5728\u62c9\u65af\u7dad\u52a0\u65af21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u8a72\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u8ced\u5834\u7b56\u7565<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<section id=\"uagb-section-33de89ed-3da7-4360-9565-d342686e9854\" class=\"wp-block-uagb-section uagb-section__wrap uagb-section__background-color\">\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__overlay\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__inner-wrap\">\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%B3%AD%E5%A0%B4%E5%B0%8D%E7%AE%97%E7%89%8C%E5%AE%A2%E7%9A%84%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD\"><\/span>\u8ced\u5834\u5c0d\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u7684\u63aa\u65bd<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<section id=\"uagb-section-dce869e2-95d2-4abc-be16-48183460e9ac\" class=\"wp-block-uagb-section uagb-section__wrap uagb-section__background-undefined\">\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__overlay\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__inner-wrap\">\r\n<ol>\r\n<li>\u4e0a\u9774\u7528\u5269\u724c\u4e0d\u6df7\u5728\u4e0b\u9774\u4f7f\u7528<\/li>\r\n<li>\u8ced\u5834\u63a1\u7528\u516d\u526f\u6216\u516b\u526f\u724c\u6df7\u6210\u4e00\u9774\u724c<\/li>\r\n<li>\u63a1\u7528\u5faa\u74b0\u6d17\u724c\u6a5f\uff08\u4f8b\u5982shuffle star\uff09\u6d17\u724c<\/li>\r\n<li>\u5207\u724c\u52a0\u539a\uff08\u5207\u53bb\u7684\u724c\u6578\u9054100\u5f35\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09<\/li>\r\n<li>\u8377\u5b98\u6d88\u724c\u7684\u9ede\u6578\u4e0d\u8b93\u8ced\u5ba2\u770b\u5230<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u904e\u5f80\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u7d22\u666e\uff08Edward Thorp\uff09\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u6253\u6557\u838a\u5bb6\u300b\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8ced\u5834\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u9ede\u724c\u6232\u662f\u63a1\u7528\u5169\u526f\u724c\uff0c\u6df7\u6210\u4e00\u9774\uff0c\u4ee5\u4eba\u624b\u6d17\u724c\uff0c\u5207\u724c\u8584\uff08\u5927\u7d04\u5207\u53bb\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7d0426\u5f35\uff09\uff0c\u4e0a\u9774\u7528\u5269\u7684\u724c\uff08\u7d04\u56db\u5206\u4e00\u7d0426\u5f35\uff09\u6df7\u5728\u4e0b\u9774\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4e14\u8377\u5b98\u6bcf\u6d88\u53bb\u4e00\u5f35\u724c\u8b93\u8ced\u5ba2\u770b\u6e05\u695a\u6d88\u9ede\u6578\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u9019\u6a23\u300c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u300d\u5c31\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6982\u7b97\u51fa\u4ed6\u62bc\u6ce8\u90a3\u9774\u724c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u724c\u5206\u4f48\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u7576\u300c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u300d\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4ed6\u4e0b\u6ce8\u9774\u724c\u7684\u5927\u724c\uff08\u5373A\u3001K\u3001Q\u3001J\u300110\uff09\u660e\u986f\u504f\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u62bc\u5927\u6ce8\uff0c\u9047\u9069\u7576\u6642\u6a5f\u4fbf\u8ced\u500d\u3001\u5206\u724c\u3001\u6216\u8005\u662f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u300c\u8cb7\u4fdd\u96aa\u300d\u7b49\uff0c\u4ee5\u64f4\u5927\u8d0f\u9762\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u4e0d\u662f\u6bcf\u4e00\u628a\u7686\u8d0f\uff0c\u4f46\u591a\u6578\u6703\u8d0f\uff0c\u6545\u300c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u300d\u80fd\u5920\u505a\u5230\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u8d0f\u300d\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"21%E9%BB%9E%E5%8D%9A%E7%89%8C%E8%A6%8F%E5%89%87\"><\/span><strong>21\u9ede\u535a\u724c\u898f\u5247<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u5169\u526f\u724c\u6df7\u6210\u4e00\u9774\u724c\uff0c\u5927\u5c0f\u724c\u662f\u6709\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u724c\uff08A\u3001K\u3001Q\u3001J\u300110\uff09\u662f40\u5f35\uff0c\u4e2d\u724c\uff089\u30018\u30017\uff09\u662f24\u5f35\uff0c\u5c0f\u724c\uff086\u30015\u30014\u30013\u30012\uff0940\u5f35\uff0c\u5408\u5171104\u5f35\u3002\u4f9d\u7167\u724c\u4f8b\uff0c\u535a\u724c\u898f\u5247\uff0c\u5018\u4e00\u9774\u724c\u7684\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u724c\u4f5c\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\uff08normal distribution\uff09\uff0c\u838a\u5bb6\u7684\u512a\u52e2\u8f03\u591a\uff0c\u8d0f\u9762\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u7e31\u7136\u662f\u719f\u6089\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u7684\u8ced\u5ba2\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\u4ed6\u6295\u6ce8\u56de\u5831\uff08\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u662f\uff0d0.5\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u4ed6\u7684\u671f\u671b\u56de\u5831\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u628a\u8f38 0.5\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u628a\u6295\u6ce81000\u5143\uff0c\u6bcf\u628a\u8f385\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u61c2\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u7684\u666e\u901a\u8ced\u5ba2\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u628a\u8f38 1.5\uff05\uff0c\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u3002<\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<section id=\"uagb-section-71ef494c-a49b-4946-a1d0-11c21dab3554\" class=\"wp-block-uagb-section uagb-section__wrap uagb-section__background-color\">\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__overlay\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__inner-wrap\">\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"21%E9%BB%9E%E7%AE%97%E7%89%8C%E5%AE%A2%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%A0%E6%96%BD%E5%B1%95%E8%B3%AD%E6%8A%80%E9%A0%98%E7%9A%84%E5%A0%B4%E5%90%88\"><\/span>21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u80fd\u5920\u65bd\u5c55\u8ced\u6280\u9818\u7684\u5834\u5408<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<section id=\"uagb-section-3f070284-dbc3-42b5-b113-279be19b81b5\" class=\"wp-block-uagb-section uagb-section__wrap uagb-section__background-none\">\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__overlay\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<div class=\"uagb-section__inner-wrap\">\r\n<p>\u5018\u300c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u300d\u80fd\u5920\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u9774\uff08104\u5f35\u724c\uff09\u724c\u5167\u7684\u5927\u724c\u6578\u91cf\u660e\u986f\u504f\u591a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5927\u724c\u6bd4\u5c0f\u724c\u591a\u51fa\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u724c\u670950\u5f35\uff0c\u5c0f\u724c25\u5f35\uff0c\u4e2d\u724c29\u5f35\uff08\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\u4e2d\u724c\u662f\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u9ede\u6578\u5c0d\u838a\u5bb6\u6216\u9592\u5bb6\u6c92\u6709\u300c\u5229\u597d\u300d\u6216\u300c\u5751\u5bb3\u300d\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u5c07\u4e4b\u8996\u70ba0\u5206\u724c\uff09\uff0c\u8a72\u9774\u724c\u5c0d\u9592\u5bb6\uff08\u73a9\u5bb6\uff09\u512a\u52e2\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u8d0f\u9762\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u5c31\u80fd\u65bd\u5c55\u5176\u6280\u2500\u6839\u64da\u5927\u3001\u5c0f\u724c\u6982\u7387\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u7d50\u5408\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u5c31\u80fd\u5c07\u838a\u5bb6\u6253\u6557\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u5f80\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u9047\u5230\u5927\u724c\u660e\u986f\u5730\u504f\u591a\u7684\u597d\u724c\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u56e0\u70ba\uff1a<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u4e00\u3001\u4e0a\u9774\u724c\uff08\u4ee5\u5f80\u662f\u5169\u526f\u724c\u6df7\u6210\u4e00\u9774\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c\uff09\u7528\u5269\u7684\u724c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u660e\u986f\u504f\u591a\u3002\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u9ede\u724c\u6232\uff0c\u4e0a\u9774\u724c\u7528\u5269\u7684\u724c\u758a\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u9774\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4e00\u9774\u63a5\u4e00\u9774\u9023\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u4e8c\u3001\u7531\u65bc\u5df2\u51fa\u904e\u7684\u724c\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u5df2\u77ad\u7136\u65bc\u80f8\uff1a\u56e0\u70ba\u838a\u5bb6\u3001\u9592\u5bb6\u7684\u724c\u6700\u5f8c\u90fd\u8981\u63ed\u51fa\u6392\u653e\u5728\u6aaf\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u5b9a\u8f38\u8d0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8377\u5b98\u5728\u6d3e\u724c\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6bcf\u6d88\u4e00\u5f35\uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u7ffb\u51fa\u4f86\u8b93\u8ced\u5ba2\u770b\u5230\u9ede\u6578\u3002\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u51e1\u5df2\u51fa\u904e\u7684\u5927\u724c\u3001\u4e2d\u724c\u3001\u5c0f\u724c\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u7686\u53ef\u4ee5\u9ed8\u8a18\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u5018\u4e0a\u4e00\u9774\u724c\u5df2\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u7684\u5927\u724c\u662f20\u5f35\uff0c\u4e2d\u724c\u662f20\u5f35\uff0c\u5c0f\u724c\u662f40\u5f35\uff0c\u5247\u5269\u4e0b\u7d0424\u5f35\u724c\u662f\u5927\u724c20\u5f35\u3001\u4e2d\u724c4\u5f35\u3001\u5c0f\u724c0\u5f35\uff0c\u6b6424\u5f35\u724c\u6df7\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u9774\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u5247\u9019\u4e0b\u4e00\u9774\u724c\u5167\u5927\u724c\u660e\u986f\u6bd4\u5c0f\u724c\u591a\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u4e09\u3001\u7576\u8377\u5b98\u6d3e\u767c\u300c\u4e0b\u9774\u724c\u300d\u6642\uff0c\u5018\u524d\u534a\u90e8\u4efd\u724c\uff08\u5047\u8a2d\u70ba52\u5f35\uff09\u6240\u6d3e\u767c\u7684\u724c\u548c\u88ab\u8377\u5b98\u6d88\u53bb\u7684\u724c\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0f\u724c\u4f54\u4e8632\u5f35\u3001\u4e2d\u724c10\u5f35\uff0c\u5927\u724c10\u5f35\u3002\u5247\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u64da\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u5018\u5f85\u8981\u6253\u7684\u7d0462\u5f35\u724c\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u5927\u724c38\u5f35\u3001\u4e2d\u724c4\u5f35\u3001\u5c0f\u724c8\u5f35\u3002\u5018\u51fa\u73fe\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u62bc\u5927\u6ce8\u3001\u8ced\u500d\u3001\u5206\u724c\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u6b64\u6642\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u6bcf\u8ced\u4e00\u628a\u7684\u52dd\u7b97\u7387\u5df2\u8d85\u904e70\uff05\uff0c\u5931\u6557\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0d\u8db330\uff05\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u8ced\u535a\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u8d0f\uff0c\u9577\u8ced\u5fc5\u8d0f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"21%E9%BB%9E%E7%AE%97%E7%89%8C%E5%AE%A2%E4%BE%9D%E7%84%B6%E6%98%AF%E9%95%B7%E8%B3%AD%E5%BF%85%E8%BC%B8\"><\/span>21\u9ede\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u9577\u8ced\u5fc5\u8f38<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u53d7\u5230\u4e94\u9805\u7d04\u675f\u689d\u4ef6\u63a3\u8098\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u5df2\u51fa\u904e\u7684\u5927\u724c\u3001\u4e2d\u724c\u3001\u5c0f\u724c\u5404\u81ea\u6578\u91cf\u70ba\u82e5\u5e72\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u6839\u672c\u7121\u6cd5\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u9918\u4e0b\u5f85\u6d3e\u724c\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u724c\u3001\u4e2d\u724c\u3001\u5c0f\u724c\u7684\u5206\u4f48\u6578\u91cf\u53ca\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u73a9\u5bb6\u624b\u6301\u5169\u5f35\u724c\u4e0d\u5920\u9ede\uff0c\u838a\u5bb6\u7684\u660e\u724c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u5920\u9ede\u6642\uff0c\u9592\u5bb6\u6700\u4f73\u7b56\u7565\u4e0d\u5916\u4f9d\u9760\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u884c\u4e8b\u3002\u800c\u4f9d\u64da\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u6253\u724c\uff0c\u7b97\u724c\u8005\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u56de\u70ba-0.5\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u9577\u671f\u6216\u5e73\u5747\u8a08\u7b97\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8ca0\u503c\u3002\u6b64\u5373\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff1a\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u5e73\u5747\u8f38\uff0c\u9577\u8ced\u5fc5\u8f38\u3002<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>\u7d04\u675f\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u9632\u6b62\u4e86\u300c\u4e0b\u9774\u724c\u300d\u6ef2\u6df7\u8f03\u591a\u5927\u724c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/li>\r\n<li>\u7d04\u675f\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9ede\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7b97\u5ba2\u8a18\u4f4f\u5df2\u51fa\u904e\u724c\u7684\u96e3\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u5269\u9918\u724c\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u96e3\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\r\n<li>\u7d04\u675f\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u4ee4\u6574\u9774\u724c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3001\u724c\u516c\u4f48\u66f4\u70ba\u5747\u52fb\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u524d\u534a\u7a0b\u5df2\u6d3e\u51fa\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5c0f\u724c\uff08\u6216\u5927\u724c\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u4ee4\u7b97\u724c\u5ba2\u6709\u6a5f\u53ef\u4e58\u3002<\/li>\r\n<li>\u7d04\u675f\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u9ede\u300c\u5207\u724c\u52a0\u539a 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